Question about progress?

Okay, I have a question about progress, but not about mine, hahah. Umm, okay, so there is this girl at my rink (if you wonder why I care, I'm writing a book and the character is a lot like her) who is nine years old and her highest jump is a double lutz. So, I was wondering if this is good progress (I don't have much experience, I am working on my axel, lol, and didn't start when I was little) and if a skater had this progress and kept going further would they have the potential to go to nationals? (please don't say it depends on if they have what it takes, blah blah blah, okay lets pretend she did have the mentality of a competitor) based soley on her progress and her age would do you think she would be able to go OR get to that level anyways at the right age to compete? Thanks xD